Building the Ark

February 16th, 2009

Did I Just Feel a Sprinkle?

Am I the only person who has noticed these two inconsistent facts? 1. Since taking office, Barack Obama has consistently made stupid and obvious mistakes with regard to both major and minor issues, and one thing he has done may turn out to have catastrophic results. 2. Obama worshipers are more convinced than ever that he is The One.

Odd.

I thought I would expand a little on yesterday’s post about the real estate deal. Without bogging down in details, it goes like this. I inherited an interest in a little piece of commercial property. Some relatives with shares in the land need money; some don’t. Some really like to sell property; some don’t. There have always been conflicts regarding the disposition of pieces of property we own in common. There has never been any possibility that we would keep all the land and manage it and profit from it; it’s not even worth discussing. It would clearly be the intelligent thing to do, but you can’t herd cats.

When talk of selling this piece started, I was disturbed. It generates a little income. It’s in a great location. It’s in a place where flat land is rare and valuable, so it’ s not like there are a lot of properties like it. And I was concerned about the motivations and judgment of family members who wanted to get rid of it.

Nonetheless, I think the US is headed for a depression or deep recession, followed by a permanently lowered standard of living. We have never had the problems we face today. We have never had hungry, capable competitors like China and India, with their own vast internal markets and an endless supply of cheap, well-educated, grateful, eager labor. There is no reason why we should continue to lead the world economically. And we have aborted millions of babies, and we are getting into all sorts of disgusting religions, and we are proud and downright gross, and we are helping cut up Israel, so unless the Bible is nonsense, we should expect serious economic problems.

So while I like the idea of holding onto good land, I think unemployment is going to shoot up, businesses are going to close, commercial properties are going to be vacant, and we may continue to experience deflation. It’s hard to say, because the Fed needs to print money to cover the insane Bush/Obama Incompetence and Laziness Encouragement Plan. On the whole, however, I think cash is going to be a great thing to have over the next few years, and it’s probably a good time to sell commercial real estate, unless you have it leased to someone solvent.

There was disagreement about how to handle the sale. I thought it would be smart to divide the property. There are no comparable sales to speak of in the area where the property lies, so you can inflate the price of a piece of land by selling one part at a high price and then using the high price as leverage when you negotiate the prices of remaining pieces. But no one else in the family thought this was a good idea. They wanted to sell, period.

I was afraid that if I pushed my viewpoint, I would cause such conflict that relationships would be damaged. As a Christian, I realized this would be wrong. When you are confronted with obstinance and bad thinking, you may have to give way and trust God to fix it. For example, say your daughter wasn’t elected captain of the cheerleading squad, and the girl who got the position is a fat skeeze with no talent, not that you are judgmental or envious. You can’t firebomb the other girl’s house. You have to accept what happened and attack with prayer and faith.

So I restrained myself and did not push. I was afraid the other partners would jump at a crummy offer, just to get the cash, but I resolved to trust God rather than get in their faces. And I reminded myself that I might be wrong, and they might be right.

Well, the negotiations have taken place. We wanted X as a minimum price for the whole thing. The buyers can’t pay X. But they can pay a nice sum for part of the land, and they want an option on the rest, and if they buy it all, we’ll get about 1.6X. That’s just crazy. The most logical expectation was a miserable offer for the whole package. But the buyers are happy, and we’re happy, and unless there is some catch I don’t know about, I’m all for the deal.

So look what appears to be happening. I managed to control myself, and in the end, aren’t we getting the result I wanted in the first place?

Here’s another thing. One thing I prayed for was that my interest would be separated from everyone else’s. Why? For the same reason I would not date a non-Christian. Because partnering with people who don’t believe is a bad idea. They lead you into acts that are contrary to God’s will. They interfere with your blessings. So a sale is a good thing, because it separates my money, so I will be free to dispose of it as I see fit. I don’t have to worry about my relatives voting to rent the property to a whorehouse or something.

We’ll see if it works out. I’m assuming I understand the facts correctly.

Incidentally, some people think my gloomy assessment of the future of our country is unjustified. Some guy linked to my blog, called me “asshat,” and suggested I move to China. And his intelligent argument for the continued prosperity of America was the well-known title of a song made famous in a South Park movie featuring puppets. It’s always good to hear an opposing view which is clearly based on logic.

Some people think I’m unpatriotic for pointing out that God may be judging our nation, and that we may well be on our way to Second World status. They think pumping their fists and yelling “USA! USA!” will somehow put us back on top. But that’s exactly the attitude that put our economy in the toilet. When people said UAW workers were paid too much, and that the auto industry would fail, the autoworkers said, “USA! USA!” Now they’re saying “SOS! SOS!” and “OMG! OMG!” And soon they’ll be saying these things at the welfare office. The handouts are not going to save them. When your rowboat has a hole in it the size of a basketball, you don’t bail. You take it out of the water and patch the hole. The Big Three still have all the problems they had before two of them chose to become charity recipients, and they will continue to fail. Why would anyone expect them to succeed?

It’s just like Pajamas Media. I said it was a stupid idea, and people said I was a jerk, and they said I was too dumb to appreciate the genius of the PJs, and they quit talking to me, and they quit linking to my blog. Then PJM failed, exactly as I and the other non-sheep predicted, and Roger Simon sent all the member bloggers an email telling them they were off what he later described as “the dole”! Yes, yes, I was the enemy of conservatism. I was “the evil in the periphery”; that’s the funniest thing I was called. But who was right? Me or the cheerleaders?

Anyway, to get back to the economy…let’s get it through our heads. We didn’t become rich and powerful because we’re the master race. We are not better than foreigners. If we were, they wouldn’t come here penniless, out-compete us, and end up owning our businesses. There is nothing special about Americans. Absolutely nothing. Our educational system is second-rate. We are not the world’s hardest workers. The Bell Curve guys claim Asians are smarter than we are. We only did well because God helped us, and when he stops, we will stop doing well. That’s not unpatriotic. It’s truth. And once again, as it was in the PJ story, people like me are not the problem, any more than spots on an X-ray are the problem when you have cancer. Touch up the spots; the problem remains.

In the Bible, there were prophets who always said Israel and Judah were going to prosper. The kings and the people did all sorts of horrible things, and then the true prophets told them they were in deep trouble. So they called on the false prophets–the “patriots”–and the false prophets beat up the real prophets and said everything was going to be fine. It was after an episode like this that the king of Babylon took the king of Judah captive, murdered his sons while he watched, had him held down while his eyes were gouged out, and took him and a bunch of other Jews to Babylon in chains.

I’ll bet there were Jews listening to the false prophets, pumping their fists and yelling “JU-DAH! JU-DAH!”

As for moving to China, I don’t think it will be necessary. China is coming here. About half of it is in my garage. And I’m typing on some of it right now, while I read the words on yet another piece of it.

I wrote that without checking, and then I turned over my keyboard and looked. Sure enough: “Made in China.”

While I’m walking down this path, I’ll mention one other thing. A commenter scolded me for thinking the success of my gardening efforts was connected to my behavior as a Christian. I can’t figure that out. Open a Bible. See what it says about people who behave. Your crops will do well. Grapes, wheat, corn, whatever. “Running over.” “Abundance.” “Plenty.” It’s not figurative language, either. Not exclusively. It really does refer to things you plant. And you can look at Joel or Numbers 28 to see what happens to the things you plant, when you aren’t living right.

I bring this up because I checked on my yard today. For a long time, I could not get anywhere with fruit, and it didn’t seem to matter what I did to help things grow. Today I was shocked by what I saw. A ponkan tree which I thought I had wiped out sprouted blossoms unexpectedly, and I’m going to have tangerines. My older tangerine tree, which I nearly killed, has little fruit on it. My key limes are sprouting blossoms which I did not foresee. My cara cara has so many tiny fruit on it, I’m afraid I’ll have to cut a bunch off to keep them from killing it. My lychee is covered in blossoms. Even my pathetic tangelo tree is getting ready to bear. And get this: I found fruit on a MALE papaya tree. Is that even possible? I think my tree is gay. The other trees have produced one papaya after another, and this one has just generated doomed blossoms, but now it has fruit on it. And I have all sorts of little Persian limes on the way. My sole surviving tomato plant has no blossoms, but suddenly it’s very healthy, which is a near-impossibility here.

My lantana bushes, which I bought because they reminded me of Israel, are exploding with flowers. Even the weakest one, which I was worried about. I think it’s going to do well from now on. And my mango trees are lush and healthy, and there are a lot of little mangoes on them.

I think when you say God doesn’t affect little things like this, in effect, you’re saying God doesn’t do anything at all, which is what most Christians really believe. But if God is God, he does things, right? Isn’t that common sense? I think people develop a weird, hands-off picture of God because it enables them to keep believing in him when their prayers consistently go unanswered. You pray and pray, and nothing happens, and you say, “That’s okay, because God is really more of a big-picture guy, and he’s very busy running the world. It’s only natural that he would have no interest in my problems.”

Whatever. When I pray, I want to see some action.

Incidentally, I would be interested in knowing whether I’m the only one who has the impression that a lot of Christians are getting interested in guns, tools, and growing things. It’s crazy, but I keep running into people who have these interests. I have to wonder if we’re being prepared for something. Maybe when times get really bad, it will be good to have a bunch of tools, plenty of firearms and ammunition, and food growing on your land.

Here’s something crazy: my grandfather left me a big heavy bag of silver. He was a judge, and there was a toll road through the counties he served, and when we went off silver coins, he used his clout to get the toll collectors to save silver for him, and he bought it. Very odd thing to do; he was not a big metals investor. And now here I am, with bad times probably on the way, sitting on a hefty pile of silver coins. Is there a reason for it?

That’s all for this morning. I have to buy some steel and some welding gas, and I have a bunch of ideas for mounting tools on roller carts. Time is wasting.

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12 Responses to “Building the Ark”

  1. Ruth H Says:

    Glad things are working out for you on the property thing. I had friends whose family owned property for generations in Baton Rouge. Jimmy Swaggart wanted it and paid them a huge millions of dollars cash, it great for a large family, then within months he was brought down in shame. I don’t know how his empire is doing now, but the large family of friends are doing great.

  2. ErikZ Says:

    Holy cow man. You have 8 different subjects here.

    “…and we may continue to experience deflation. It’s hard to say, because the Fed needs to print money to cover the insane Bush/Obama Incompetence and Laziness Encouragement Plan.”

    Printing more money always causes inflation. Which means your paper money is now worth less, and physical assets require more paper money to buy or sell.

    I would say that Obama’s inlfation plan is a good idea, but I’m pretty sure he didn’t plan it. Say by next year the dollar is worth half of what it is today. eventually your salary goes up to twice as what it was, but your debts stay the same.

    It’ll solve the housing crisis, the educational loan crisis, the pension crisis, etc.

    So not selling that land would have been the best course of action. However, sometimes you just need the money.

    “The Big Three still have all the problems they had before two of them chose to become charity recipients, and they will continue to fail. Why would anyone expect them to succeed?”

    By the way, where are your bold and italicize tags? It’s far easier to tell the difference between my words and quoting you when using them.
    Why would you assume that the government cares if they succeed?

    “I would be interested in knowing whether I’m the only one who has the impression that a lot of Christians are getting interested in guns, tools, and growing things.”

    A lot of EVERYONE is getting interested in these things. I see it as a vote of “No Confidence” in the government. But instead of uselessly complaining about it, they’re taking matters back in their own hands.

  3. ErikZ Says:

    sigh.

    And a “New Paragraph” tag would be great too. I look like some crazy idiot from the Internet now.

  4. Steve H. Says:

    I’m not sure why you’re explaining how printing money causes inflation. I mentioned it, and everyone knows it. What isn’t clear is whether we’ll be able to print enough to beat deflation. My best guess is that it won’t happen.
    .
    Your conclusion that selling the land is a bad idea doesn’t hold water. A sale at a good price always makes sense, especially when it converts partners with conflicting desires into free agents. When a whole bunch of people own a property as partners, it greatly reduces the value of the property. If you can sell it for as much or more than a property held by a single rational entity, you’ve already made an unexpected profit.
    .
    It’s possible that having the money in real estate instead of cash is a good idea, but I very much doubt it. Property values are still grossly inflated everywhere, whether people want to admit it or not. Also, Ben Stein claims that even if we print money, we won’t see inflation for two years. If that’s true or even nearly true, there is ample time to make a 1031 exchange, find a sound company to invest in, or even buy gold. And holding money that loses a few percent of its value beats holding a property that drops twenty percent or more. It also beats having a bunch of partners who can’t be reasoned with.
    .
    As for inflation wiping out debts and making everyone happy: not so. It won’t help the many companies and individuals who are owed money. They’re going to take it in the neck if they’re repaid with Monopoly dollars, and that will hurt the economy. They’ll fire people. They’ll spend less. They’ll go bankrupt. There will be the usual ripples. It’s not enough to pass money around. The money has to be worth something.
    .
    Obama’s answers are like fire extinguishers that shoot gasoline. I suspect he’s going to be remembered as one of history’s greatest failures.
    .
    Sorry about the way comments display. There is something wrong with my styles.css file.

  5. davis,br Says:

    I expect to God to do things too.
    .
    …and I suspect He is doing …those …things.
    .
    For one thing, because “…And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie,” …seems to be moreso in evidence than I can ever recall.
    .

  6. Aaron's cc: Says:

    Regarding your family’s land deals, there’s a rhyming Yiddish quip: “Mann tracht und Gott lacht.” It means “Man plans and God laughs.”

  7. mcgruder Says:

    maybe, maybe not.
    maybe this is the begining of a long time in the wilderness, maybe it is just a bitch of a recession. Me, having covered wall street and then worked on it, I’ll warrant that becoming the globe’s balance sheet and trading desk worked just fine, until the asset values that underpinned the system collapsed.
    thus, having shed our manufacturing base, we havent a boat to float on.

    politics is going to be pointless for a bit.
    when Ann Coulter defends the Conservative Citizen Councils, white ultra-nationalists, the GOP is going nowhere fast.

    well be ok though. Its just going to hurt some for us all between now and “Ok.”

  8. ErikZ Says:

    How are you putting spaces in between your paragraphs? I do part time editing on the side and my improper formatting is driving me up the wall!

    “I’m not sure why you’re explaining how printing money causes inflation. I mentioned it, and everyone knows it.”

    I just did a search on your post, the word “Inflation” doesn’t appear in it. You used Deflation where I was expecting to see Inflation though.

    “Also, Ben Stein claims that even if we print money, we won’t see inflation for two years.”

    I hope it’s true. Looks like we’re in for a Applied Economic Theory moment.

    And even though I’m not happy with the idea of inflating our way out of our crushing debts, I just don’t see many ways out of them. The only other solution I came up with is flat out canceling them.

  9. km Says:

    God GENERALLY looks favorably upon people who are righteous and unfavorably upon those who aren’t – although some good people get raw deals and some slime prospers.

    You have enough sense to not get sucked into the ‘health & wealth’ heresiies – so with those caveats, I agree strongly with what you’ve said.

  10. davis,br Says:

    >>How are you putting spaces between your paragraphs?
    .
    Look above the “L” in the space above. Look closely. You will see a period.
    .
    Look. Another one.
    .
    Heh.
    .
    (I used to do ASCII formatting to make forms and stuff…even to drawing boxes. You learn tricks.
    .

  11. Wormathan Says:

    “I think my tree is gay.”
    .
    I almost woke the neighbors on that one!

  12. Anthony Says:

    Steve wrote: ” I would be interested in knowing whether I’m the only one who has the impression that a lot of Christians are getting interested in guns, tools, and growing things.”

    Anthony Writes: Having come to Christ five years ago the desire to learn how to raise animals has caught my interest for at least as long. And recently, I’ve decided to go a head and do the paper work and deal with the crazy British rules on firearm licensing – so to have firearms in my home. For the longest time my itch to shoot was satisfied during my yearly trips to the States – where I have firearms stored with family and friends. As far as tools and building stuff, I’ve started to do that too, for about two years now.

    Cheers (I mean Bye)
    Anthony – A yank living in England.

    PS – A pellet gun that has a muzzle velocity greater than 850 FPS, or a cocking pressure great than 12 pounds, is classified as a firearm in England.