The Actual Truth Would be a Blessing

It’s about 11 a.m., and Hurricane Helene is maybe 350 miles away. Accuweather.com says the current wind speed is 39 mph, and we are under a hurricane warning.

In fact, the air is nearly still, and even the worst wind speed predictions are nowhere close to 75 mph, which is where hurricane winds begin.

You can see why I don’t trust forecasts. I think lawyers write them. Either them or advertising executives. “Come on! We have to sell those corn flakes!”

“Watch” means something is a possibility. “Warning” means it’s expected. If we’re in a hurricane warning area, it means SUSTAINED winds of at least 74 mph are EXPECTED. We should be surprised if we don’t get them. But is that correct?

The maximum forecast sustained wind speed is 54 mph, and we are supposed to see it at 3 p.m. It has been a long time since first grade, but I’m pretty sure 54 is lower than 74.

The site that predicts 54 is the same site that now says the wind speed is 39.

It looks like the eye of the storm is expected to be about 160 miles away at its nearest approach. Assuming the wind field remains the same size, that would put us inside the area where tropical storm winds (at least 39 mph) exist. Problem: to get to me, the winds will have to cross about 90 miles of land. They’ll becoming from the south, and there is a lot of land south of me. If the winds come ashore at, say, 50 mph. it’s not reasonable to expect them to be nearly as high when they arrive here.

NOAA has painted a huge portion of Georgia red. That means “tropical storm warning.” Is there any conceivable way that makes sense? Wind and rain, sure, but sustained winds of at least 39 mph, as far north as Macon? Macon is over 300 miles from the water.

During the last hour, I saw a TV station graphic that showed the red area going around me, meaning they don’t expect sustained tropical storm winds here. How can that be, if Georgia is under a warning?

I think they should tell people the truth. They exaggerate all the time, and people get used to it. Then, surely, people start assuming they’re always exaggerating, so they stay home when they should leave.

They’re now saying there could be 20 feet of storm surge to the west of me. So if you normally step sideways to get on your docked boat at high tide, some time today, the step will be 20 feet high. That’s amazing. I was in Andrew, and at something like 170 mph coming directly from the bay, we only saw about 8 feet.

Are they exaggerating again, or will the surge really be 20 feet high? Who can say?

They’re saying there will be flash flooding in the mountains. Well, maybe so, but right here in Florida, we’re expecting 2″ or less of rain, which won’t flood anything. All the flooding will come from the storm surge. So how can the mountains flood?

A dry storm like this one is a big blessing, because wet storms loosen tree roots. The dryer a storm is, the fewer trees fall.

Helene will be horrible for people on the coast between, maybe, Cedar Key and Apalachicola, just because of the surge. It doesn’t have to hit 20 feet to cause serious problems. Other than that, I don’t think it will be a big deal. Thankfully, it will be hammering an area with very few people in it.

People are saying Tallahassee is doomed, but Tallahassee is about 30 miles inland.

I don’t think we will have serious problems where I am. I think the coastal areas with storm surge will be a mess. I think Tallahassee will be fine. I think Georgia and the mountains will be fine. These are my guesses.

I’ll be bold and say I don’t expect to lose electricity. But if I do, we can get in the car and go to Daytona or some other place for two days so we can continue to have warm showers.

People are being advised to stuff their houses with supplies. I don’t do that. Stores will be open tomorrow. Wait and see. Restaurants will be open. I’m not going to fill my house with Pop Tarts and Doritos any more.

By three p.m., I should know what we are facing. Meanwhile, we will take some time to pray for people who will get hit much worse.

SITREP

It’s about 3:20. Sometimes the trees are bouncing a little. There is no rain. We had sunny skies for a while.

This is when they said we would get peak winds, so I guess that was wrong. Other sources say they’re around 7 hours away.

West coast live cameras show some wind and rough seas, but people are still driving across Tampa Bay. If we were seeing catastrophic surge, the road would be underwater.

Helene is not going to get much closer to Tampa, so I don’t see how things can get a lot worse. I think it’s peaking.

I found out why they’re predicting flooding in the mountains. It’s because it already happened. A weather system that looks to be unrelated to Helene is already causing flooding. I don’t think it’s quite fair to pin this on the storm.

We are still expecting under 2″ of rain, so is it really possible it will be worse up north? We are under the clouds they claim will flood the mountains, and it’s not happening here. Where are the clouds supposed to pick up more water? They’re going to be over land.