Looking Forward to Newsmen Doing Their Marcel Marceau Impressions

Tropical Storm Nicole is turning out to be pretty lame, so I am optimistic about tomorrow.

The center of the eye is west of Freeport, around 70 miles from our coast, and the NHC says the wind speed was 75 mph an hour ago, making it EXACTLY equal to the minimum speed of a hurricane. Suspiciously, some would say. A remarkable coincidence. Maybe they round to the nearest 5 or 0.

Weather Underground, a well-known weather site, is saying some remarkable things right now. It says 1) Nicole is a hurricane situated over Grand Bahama, and 2) a wind gust of 61 mph was recorded there tonight. Like, now.

Okay. Here is how storm speeds are measured. Storms are measured by “maximum sustained winds,” and a maximum wind is “sustained” if it maintains speed for at least one minute. So in order for Nicole to be a hurricane, it has to produce winds higher than 74 mph for at least one minute, right where it is, which means Grand Bahama. If a gust of 61 mph is so significant it made the news, how can Nicole have maximum sustained winds of over 74 mph?

Gusts are faster than maximum sustained winds, so it seems bizarre that a gust of 61 mph made news in a storm which is supposed to have maximum sustained winds of at least 75 mph.

I saw a site claiming there would be “coastal flooding” all the way to North Carolina. Uh…no. Flooding is when water comes in under your front door, way above the high tide line, at the very least. Right now, the worst-hit areas are expecting a maximum storm surge of 6 feet, and it could be as low as 3 feet. If Florida, right in the crosshairs, is going to top out no higher than 6 feet, North Carolina is not going to have “flooding” by any honest definition. In all likelihood, anything resembling flooding will be confined to some barrier islands in Florida. We are not going to see people in Atlanta paddling kayaks in their front yards. Not unless CNN or the Weather Channel shows up and fakes it, as they are known to do.

Here’s a quick video of a Weather Channel reporter getting ready for hurricane season.

Maybe you can see why I don’t trust the dire predictions we always get.

The storm is now moving at 13 mph, which is good news. Better than the 8 mph they quoted earlier. You want a storm to move as fast as possible so it doesn’t sit on you and blow trees down for two days.

At this speed, the eye, if one still exists tomorrow, should pass by me roughly 24 hours from now. By that time, the storm will be broken up pretty badly. My county will probably get nearly no wind damage. My opinion may change if the storm’s track moves significantly. Things could be worse than I now expect. But the future looks good right now.

The NHC says I am well within the tropical-storm-force wind area right now, but it’s not bad at all. I would call it very breezy with no rain. The longer the dry conditions hold out, the stronger the trees will stay.

Weather Underground still thinks my area will get 2″ of rain, which is wet but not disastrous. When I was a kid in Miami, we got 14″ one day. I remember, because my mother went into cardiac arrest at a doctor’s office and failed to pick me up from school, and my sister and I had to walk home in it. Supposedly, the county I’m in right now got 10″ during Irma. There was water standing in my woods.

Palm Beach County is supposedly about to be hit with very, very hard rain. I got that from a TV newsman, however, so it may be a gross and intentional exaggeration. The NHC is number one in terms of reliability, and news people are right up there with mood rings, Miss Cleo, and Democrat pollsters.

Weather Underground predicts winds of 25-35 mph here tomorrow, but they also predict them for…right now. If there is any basis for their predictions, then I am already seeing the best Nicole has to offer.

I gave in to storm paranoia and bought sugary cereal, Pop Tarts, and the makings of Texas trash, one of my favorite party snacks. I rolled Cheddar Chex mix and Spanish peanuts in Worcestershire, A1, butter, Crystal hot sauce, celery seeds, brown sugar, and a couple of other things, and I baked it at 250 until it was dry. Really nice.

I guess I will be overindulging today and tomorrow. Ordinarily, I go out on the patio at lunchtime and fix a big cheeseburger on my dangerously-modified propane grill, but I don’t want to deal with the rain and wind, if it comes. Looks like it will be Frosted Mini-Wheats instead.

Rhodah and I have been interceding regarding the storm, and I hope you will, too. Nicole is not a scary storm, but it has the potential to cause fairly serious problems for some areas, and there are always people who do dumb things that turn mild storms into killers. A guy on the West Coast decided to stay in his beachfront home during Ian even though he knew he couldn’t swim, and now he’s dead. He posted commentary on Facebook, and the last posts were very sad.

Hurricane parties and “riding it out” were popular activities when I was a kid. There is something exhilarating about having drinks with friends on a screened-in patio by Coleman light as a storm whirls around your house.

Years ago, people could be forgiven their bad judgment. We didn’t know as much as we do now. These days, there is no excuse. When the government tells you your storm surge will be “unsurvivable,” and they tell you to write your name and Social Security number on your body so it can be identified when they find it later, you should get in the car.

There is no “riding it out” where I live, because we don’t get hurricanes. We get tropical storm winds at best. Storm surge can’t come near this county. This is not the coast, so unless you live in a mobile home under a big tree, you don’t have to leave home. Coastal people have to be more careful.

I truly hope I still have power tomorrow. Otherwise, look for me to blog from a nearby hotel until it comes back.