TEN

My life is all about anger management these days. I don’t want to hit 60 and find I’ve turned into a combination of Michael Moore and Chris Matthews. I am Mr. Patience. That’s my new name. BUT I got a little annoyed, watching a weatherman on Saturday. In the morning, I had confirmed that Miami was outside the Cone of Death for Hurricane Ike. Not far outside, but definitely outside. You can still be hit when you’re outside the Cone of Death, but the whole point of the Cone is to show who is most likely to get the storm, and if you’re out, they don’t expect you to have problems.

This guy said we were “WELL WITHIN” the Cone.

How is “just outside” equivalent to “well within”?

Admit it, dude. Nobody expects Ike to hit Miami. I know it’s hard for a journalist to let go of the hope for a major catastrophe. But the lives and property of several million people are somewhat important, too.

I have enough aggravation. I don’t need it compounded by a missing roof and looters. If I’m in danger, please let me know. But don’t yank my chain just because it makes me pay attention to you.

TV journalists got really spoiled by Andrew and the 2004-2005 mess. They got to sit in canoes in knee-deep water and pretend it was major flooding. They got to film Sean Penn’s rescue dinghy, as it sank because he didn’t realize you have to put the plug in the drain hole. They got to use infrared police video of ignorant looters who didn’t realize the cops could see them in the dark. And they got to film a destroyed American city. Now they have to be content with rare storms involving cataclysmic misfortunes such as trees falling across driveways. They don’t seem too happy about it.

For journalists with the wrong attitude, the only bad news is good news. Maybe our journalism schools need to start offering seminars on how to endure and present bad news without developing clinical depression.

Speaking of bad news for journalists, McCain is up…what? What? TEN percentage points in the latest poll? TEN? I would have been thrilled with three. At this rate, by November, Sarah Palin runs the risk of becoming a false deity. Enjoy her, folks. Just remember, she’s mortal. No faux Greek temples, please.

My best wild guess is that the PUMAs helped generate this result, and that they are quite serious when they put up Internet posts and comments overwhelmingly supporting this woman. And why should we be surprised? Nervous liberal talking heads say women “won’t be fooled” into thinking Sarah is an acceptable candidate, just because she’s a woman. My response? Why not? It worked for Hillary.

Here’s a bitter pill for partisans on both sides of the aisle: most Americans do not understand the difference between socialism and capitalism. They are not committed, one way or the other. This is why life is so frustrating for the politically aware. We’re constantly yammering at unobservant people who refuse to absorb obvious knowledge. We’re like Yossarian in Catch-22, pounding on Aarfy’s chest, trying to make him understand that he needs to get out of the nose of the plane.

When Barack Obama tells them they can have piles of socialist trinkets and mirrors, it never occurs to them that these things will erode the capitalist system and destroy wealth. When John McCain tells them he wants to cut pork and keep the tax rates low, it never occurs to them that he is endangering their Great-Society-style handouts. TV pundits say it’s insulting to suggest that the PUMAs would vote for Sarah just because she’s a woman; they say her conservative politics will turn them off. But not all of the PUMAs are true liberals. A lot of them are politically flexible ladies who just want to see a woman on the ticket, even if it’s Phyllis Schlafly. And they’re absolutely correct to believe that a Republican woman will have the same glass-ceiling-shattering effect as a Democrat. If a woman is what they want, Sarah Palin will do. The acronym “Party Unity, My Ass” ought to tip the pundits off.

So maybe the convention bounce comes largely from the PUMAs. If it does, Obama’s free-range goose is cooked. They always say there are 18 million PUMAs. If half of them vote for McCain or stay home, Obama will have a real problem. Last time around, each candidate got around 50 million votes. When 18 million voters desert you, it’s a serious void in your constituency. You can’t just patch it with a composite of nebulous “change” and Bond-O.

Then there’s the other problem: the Bradley Effect. No one likes to talk about it. Non-black voters usually exaggerate their willingness to vote for black candidates. Dinkins was supposed to beat Giuliani, remember? Hypocrisy is most rampant when there is no price to pay. When you’re on the phone with a pollster, you can say anything you want. If it makes you look good to the stranger on the other end of the line, you won’t hesitate to say it. In the voting booth, it’s another story. If you have a problem with black leaders, you’re going to express it with your private vote. Sad, but true. History proves it. From observing the behavior and speech of non-blacks all my life, I’ve come up with an estimate that about fifteen percent of Americans have significant racism issues, and they generally manifest them only in private. If that’s even close to correct, the Bradley Effect is inevitable.

A lot of people in Appalachia will never vote for a black man. The same is true in Boston. Nationwide, Hispanics generally resist voting for blacks. I’ve even heard anti-black sentiment from a surprising number of upper-middle-class suburban Jews. These are shameful facts, but that doesn’t mean they can be wished away. And don’t forget; the last time Obama won an election, his opponent was black.

It would be wonderful to see Americans base their votes on sound reasoning, but things like prejudice and intuition and the candidates’ personalities play huge roles. There is no point in fighting it. If John McCain wins, I’ll be happy, even if I will have questions about the motivation of a lot of the people who helped put him in the White House.

Hey, at least he can count on overwhelming support from blacks and Muslims. I’m sure they’re basing their votes purely on his policies. Whatever those may turn out to be, when he chooses to nail them down and inform us.

Did you notice how he’s saying he might keep the Bush tax cuts? Oh, yeah, that’s a sign of confidence. You can tell he’s not scared or anything. Geez, B. Hussein, if we wanted four more years of Bush, shouldn’t we just vote for George W. McCain? That’s what one of your community organizers told me.

The weird thing about this election is that regardless of who wins, a woman or a black man will be at the inauguration. If you wanted change, get ready. You’re going to get it.

I hope the poll trend continues. I hate having to consider the possibility that a former ward heeler with a history of refusing to rock the boat could ever be elected as a reform candidate, especially without being required to tell us what his policies are.