Old People Can Predict the Future

July 17th, 2020

George Santayana, I Listened!

I have had a fascinating experience. I went to a forum and criticized something I saw in a Youtube video. The thread was locked, and when I got up, I had a personal message featuring a slew of forum moderators as participants!

I explained how I disagreed with them. I did it politely. I said they should ask themselves why they chose to send me the strange personal message with multiple cc’s. I said they could delete the thread if it bothered them, and I said maybe they should have a rule that no one can disagree with the person whose behavior I criticized.

They deleted the thread, and here is the explanation: “I have deleted the thread because the OP has little value and misrepresents the issue.” This is not even a little bit true, but it’s the explanation. My response to them: “Problem solved.”

Guess who I criticized. I’ll tell you. Massad Ayoob. I’ve written about him before. I used to be impressed by his work, but that perspective has changed as I have learned things.

If you don’t know who he is, here are the facts. He is a gun writer. He has participated in pistol competitions. He was a part-time cop in a tiny (like fewer than 3000 people) town in New Hampshire.

Right now, that town has a grand total of 5 patrolmen. But when Ayoob “retired” from part-time work, he had the rank of captain. That’s very odd. I’ve known a number of small-town cops. I never knew anyone who called himself a captain. I knew deputies and sheriffs. I don’t think they knew they could make themselves captains. It seems very strange to me that a part-time cop in a sleepy little department would let someone call him “captain.”

Anyone can go to a police supply site and order stars or bars. Captain’s bars cost $8.75 on Amazon. For 10 bucks, you can be a brigadier general.

You can also be an admiral, but most of the admiral stuff is from Battlestar Galactica, so you might get sued by the estate of Lorne Greene.

The thing about it is that there are many, many LEO’s and military people out there who earned the insignias of rank. They fought in battles. Many were wounded or killed. There are many cops who worked their way up in departments in violent cities, taking part in shootouts. I would feel very odd, putting bars on my shoulders after working part-time, in very little danger, in a miniscule town where nothing happens.

I’ve seen a number of statements of his credentials, and I’ve never seen one that indicates he went to college or served in the military. He has no law degree. He works as an expert witness, which means lawyers pay him when they think he can state facts that will help their clients.

An expert witness is not allowed to talk about the law on the witness stand. He can only talk about facts. An expert witness who started issuing legal opinions would get in trouble with his boss–the lawyer–and he could also be held in contempt by the judge. Here’s a good parallel: a technician runs a complicated machine while a surgeon removes a brain tumor, and he pushes the surgeon out of the way and starts cutting.

A gun channel on Youtube put up a video in which Ayoob told people how to talk to the police after shooting other people.

This is what we lawyers call “legal advice.” Ayoob lives in Florida. In Florida, a layman like Ayoob can get in big trouble if he provides legal advice. If the situation is sufficiently egregious, he can be charged with a third-degree felony. Practicing law without a license is a crime in every state. Telling people how to talk to cops in a Youtube video is not necessarily practicing law, but the fact that practicing law without a license is a crime is an indication that there is a consensus that it’s very bad for unqualified people to give legal advice.

My dad defended 11 murder defendants, and he got 10 acquittals. Like nearly any other criminal attorney you may talk to, he told me this: you do not talk to the police when you get in trouble. He said 85% of prison inmates were incarcerated because they talked. I don’t know where he got the statistic, and it may have been somewhat outdated, but the principle was correct, and he didn’t make it up.

It should be obvious that Ayoob isn’t qualified to tell people how to act in pivotal legal situations with potentially catastrophic consequences. The main problem is that he isn’t a lawyer and does not understand the law. The other problem is that he’s giving outlier, contrarian advice that goes against what every attorney is taught in law school. It goes against what most criminal attorneys are taught when they practice. It flies in the face of the Supreme Court’s Miranda holding, which resulted in police being forced to tell suspects they had the right to remain silent.

I tried to explain why what he did was not wise, and of course, laymen in the forum disagreed. I knew that would happen. It gave me flashbacks to my childhood, when I couldn’t communicate with other kids. I would say things like, “It’s ‘LIBRARY,’ not ‘LIBERRY,'” and they looked at me like I was from Mars. I’m not the smartest person on earth, but I’m smart enough to be frustrated a lot when I try to explain things to people. The smarter you are, the lonelier you will feel.

At least one person mentioned advice a cop had given him. Are cops lawyers? No. They are not. I don’t care if you’ve arrested 3,000 suspects. Police experience doesn’t make you a lawyer, any more than prosecuting criminals makes you a cop. I have to note, however, that one person said a cop had advised him not to talk.

My main point was not that you should never talk to the police after you shoot someone. I believe it’s true, as do most lawyers, but there are competent attorneys who believe otherwise. The point was that a guy who writes for magazines and works as a paid witness has no business giving blanket legal advice on Youtube.

I’ll give you the only free legal advice my law school told me I could give people without risking serious problems: when you’re in trouble, hire an attorney. You say you may not be able to get an attorney right after you shoot someone? Sorry; they didn’t teach me how to make one appear for you. You can always hire one today, just to give you preemptive advice. That’s my advice. Hire an attorney.

I’m not telling you to talk to the cops. I’m not telling you to talk to them. I’m telling you this: hire an attorney.

Anyway, here is the thing I wanted to write about, and it’s a wonderful confirmation of my understanding of human nature: when I got up today, I had that personal message to deal with.

I can’t read anyone’s mind, but I have some opinions:

1. Ayoob has a cultlike following, and he gets very special treatment.

2. Gun forum moderators are not the most ethical people on earth. Something I already knew.

Imagine you belong to a gun forum, and one day, you criticize a Youtube video made by a non-famous person the moderators don’t know. Let’s say the video guy is telling people the .38 Special is worthless for self-defense, and you happen to know that the video guy is a bartender who has no formal training in ballistics or pathology. On the other hand, he has done a lot of reading. You say he shouldn’t be posting videos because he isn’t trained.

Will the forum moderators gang up and send you a message to reeducate you? Will they delete your thread?

Of course not.

Why is Massad Ayoob different? Why was he sheltered?

If anything, he should get less protection than a bartender. He is presumed to be extremely knowledgeable and able. The Ayoob of myth should be able to swat me like a fly. Why not give him a shot at it?

What were they afraid of? What were they trying to prevent? Unfair criticism? The forum is packed with unfair criticism. It’s normal. No one cares. People say things that are wrong, other people contradict them, they insult each other for a while, and no one cares.

They didn’t flip out because I was wrong. I wasn’t, and they don’t have a policy of deleting erroneous posts. It wasn’t because I was unfair. I wasn’t, and they leave unfair material up every day. What does that leave?

Ayoob is supposedly a member of the forum. Is he in frail health? Were they afraid he would have a stroke if he saw someone disagree with him? Is he funding the forum? Were they afraid he would cut them off?

It doesn’t look like they had any faith in his ability to respond to my posts. They never gave him a chance.

Truthfully, he wouldn’t have had a chance had they allowed him, because…he’s a layman. It’s pretty obvious that laymen shouldn’t give legal advice.

I’ve written about my participation in forums before, and I’ve noted a few things. Some types of forums draw reasonable, polite people (no, really), and others draw the other kind. I participated in a bodybuilding forum briefly to do research for something I was writing, and the people were completely vile. Maybe it was the steroids. I’ve run into a lot of annoying, supercilious pedants on machining forums, but woodworking forums aren’t too bad. Food forums are full of culinary jihadis. The hate and factionalism are shocking.

Gun forums are pretty low on the list. “I shoot better than you.” “I’m tougher than you.” “I’m more patriotic than you.” “I will shut you down whenever you say anything everyone else has already swallowed without questioning.” My policy with gun forums is to zip in when I have a question, shrug off whatever abuse comes my way, and zip back out. Posting a thread questioning the infallibility of Massad Ayoob was a lapse. I had a weak moment. Something to thnk about so I can correct myself in the future.

As a Christian, I try to limit the provocation in my life. I have been very contentious in the past, and I fight it and pray about it now. I should never have mentioned Ayoob’s obvious error on a forum. It was like walking past a gang of prostitutes with hundred-dollar bills hanging out of my pockets. I knew better.

I don’t have a ton of respect for Ayoob. The more I learn about him, the more he seems to be about sizzle, not steak. He shoots well, and he has done a lot of work to educate himself about tactics and weapons. That’s about it. His ability to analyze legal questions is negligible, and he ought to know it. He also got into a ballistics/wounding dispute with Dr. Martin Fackler, a physician who is perhaps the world’s greatest authority on bullet wounds. How can you make a decision to do a thing like that, knowing how your own abilities stack up? It’s like running onto the field during the Super Bowl.

Twenty years ago, Ayoob might have been a rare source of useful information, but now you can go to Youtube or other sites and get free advice from SEAL’s and Delta Force soldiers who have actually cleared buildings and killed people in gunfights. You can hear from real cops who, though not captains, worked full-time in dangerous cities and fought armed criminals multiple times. You can hear from real lawyers. You can also find source material people like Ayoob rely on. Buying an Ayoob book or watching an Ayoob video is now not a productive use of time. You can do much better and pay nothing, or you can take a class from someone who has more experience and personal knowledge.

Every time he gives you tactical advice, it’s secondhand. He had to ask the people who were really there, in armed confrontations, after being trained properly by others who had the same kind of experience. Why not ask them yourself?

This is a guy who didn’t have a nine-to-five job. He was a writer. He didn’t have a company infrastructure to guarantee him a paycheck of pension. Result: he had to promote himself in order to keep working. This is probably why he went overboard. He must have formed a habit he couldn’t break.

To get back to the point, human nature is disappointing in that it never disappoints when you expect it to let you down. I knew there was no way I would convince most laymen on the forum they weren’t as qualified as Benjamin Cardozo, and I knew disagreeing with Massad Ayoob would turn the poobahs against me. I knew I would not be treated fairly. I knew there was no way any of these people would see, or at least admit they saw, their own errors.

Human beings are as predictable as termites. It makes you wonder what good our 1350-cc brains do us.

The fact that I said what I did, in spite of what I knew about human beings, tells me I still need improvement. I don’t have to go through life poking Happy Fun Ball™.

7 Responses to “Old People Can Predict the Future”

  1. Jim Says:

    Twenty years ago, Ayoob might have been a rare source of useful information, but now you can go to Youtube or other sites and get free advice from SEAL’s and Delta Force soldiers who have actually cleared buildings and killed people in gunfights.

    And right here you cut directly to the core of the matter. Fact is, 20, 25 years ago, Mr. Ayoob was at or near the pinnacle of available sources in the self-defense education world. A formidable competition shooter with cop credentials and prodigious writing talent. He was a large town on the map.

    Until the Internet built an Interstate Highway that went about ten miles West of him, and all that lovely, beautiful and valuable traffic passed him by, leaving his town to shrivel and shrink as the gun-world sought out proven warriors, gunfight-experienced cops and defense lawyers with actual courtroom chops.

    I’d still read an Ayoob gun review with the utmost respect. He’s an able and knowledgeable gun-writer. He knows guns, gear, performance and capabilities.

    But if I find myself in real trouble, I’m gonna want a real lawyer.

    Jim
    Sunk New Dawn
    Galveston, TX

  2. Steve H. Says:

    Ayoob admires a deceased cop named Jim Cirillo, who killed something like 11 men in gunfights. He writes about him. Cirillo wrote a book, too.

    I learned more from Cirillo’s book than I did from two Ayoob books. Cirillo (not a captain) actually knew what mattered, because he had put things to the acid test. Ayoob has no idea what it’s like to use a gun anywhere except a gun range.

    Ayoob is fine when he sticks to what he knows, but even there, he now has a great deal of company.

    When it comes to the new guys, I like Paul Harrell a lot, although I think he may be a murderer.

  3. Steve in CA Says:

    RE Ayoob-never try to teach a pig (literally, not figuratively) to sing, it wastes your time and ignores the pig.
    RE Paul Harrell, I know about the shooting. He was charged with first degree manslaughter, not murder. He claimed self defense, the grand jury couldn’t disprove his claim. So he killed a man, but was it murder? I am not sure.

  4. Steve H. Says:

    Of course, I didn’t say Harrell was charged with murder. I said I thought he might be guilty of it. You can be guilty of murder and be charged with manslaughter.

    The case doesn’t look too good based on what Harrell says. He and his wife were on foot in the woods, and he shot a man who was driving a truck. I read that, and I tried to picture a scenario in which I couldn’t evade a truck on foot in a forest. Made me wonder.

    Hey, I wasn’t there.

  5. Steve in CA Says:

    This:
    https://www.wallowa.com/news/harrell-freed-of-manslaughter-charges-in-troy-shooting/article_b148a9a9-2280-5ca8-968f-3e7a84fcdc1a.html
    Has the details. They were in their campsite and the guy drove his truck through it.

  6. Steve H. Says:

    That’s exactly what I read. You will note that they didn’t conclude he was innocent. Just that they couldn’t prove otherwise.

    I’m not saying he’s guilty. Just that the story raises doubts. It’s not like the Zimmerman case, where the assailant was sitting on the victim, beating his head on concrete.

  7. Steve in CA Says:

    I see your point.

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