Coronavirus Prediction Still Doing Well

Here’s what’s happening with my coronavirus forecast equation.

Predicted cases (including error correction discussed earlier): 1,007,033.

Actual: 1,026,974.

Error: ~1.9%.

These figures are global.

Ignore the correction factor, and I’m still within around 20%, which is still a bullseye.

It appears undeniable that this disease will never begin to spread as quickly or infect as many people as the flu. Every continent is infected, and the easiest targets, by and large, will have the disease by the end of the month, if they don’t already. It’s not like there is a huge bank of unexposed populations of potential victims which will cause the rate to spike.

I would expect the transmission rate to drop off soon because of the shortage of suitable targets.

I am not knowledgeable about epidemics, but like I always say, I can tell the difference between one million and 650 million.

I coined a phrase this week, and I decided to have a shirt made. Here it is:

If you want one for yourself, you can find it on Cafepress. You don’t have to have white. You can choose the color. I don’t use my blog for financial gain, so I won’t link to it.

That’s it for now. Time to look for productive activities.

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We still have no major-celebrity deaths. The press’s latest unsuccessful candidate: Adam Schlesinger, the “famed pop rock singer” (???) who ghost-wrote “That Thing you Do” for Tom Hanks.

Schlesinger supposedly had no preexisting risk factors. He was a bit overweight and over the age of 50, but that’s all we know.

There are thousands of real celebrities, like Madonna and Michael Jordan. What’s protecting them? If it’s not magic, it must be math.

I don’t know a single person who has this disease, and even though I’m a hermit, I do know a lot of people. I’m a connected hermit.

I suppose people who put Schlesinger’s fame in proper perspective will be accused of insensitivity. Be honest. Do you weep every time you learn that someone you never heard of died? No. That would be a sign of mental illness. It’s very sad, but my oldest memories of this man go back about 25 minutes. There is a limit to what you can expect.