Fears Wiped Away

Let’s get this out of the way first. I wrote an equation to predict how many cases would appear on the Johns Hopkins coronavirus site. I got it working so well the predictions were leveling out at around 20% below the actual figures. Then it occurred to me that I could do better by simply adding the error (~26.4%) to the predicted numbers. Yesterday, I was within one percentage point.

Today, my math says there should be 937,081 cases on the website. Actual figure this morning: 941,949.

So this equation has worked incredibly well for what? Five days in a row? It has worked since the last time I changed the constant, whenever that was.

Yesterday, I was about 0.83% off. Today I’m 0.52% off.

That’s so precise, there is no possible way to attribute it to skill. Even if the disease obeyed an equation precisely, there would be errors in collecting the data and putting it on the website, and they would be big.

I’m tempted to say the infection rate is slowing down, because 0.83 is bigger than 0.52, but of course, that would be ridiculous. There are probably a lot of people it would fool, though.

I wonder if anyone other than my 4 readers will ever know how well I did with this. I guess not.

I seriously wonder if God is helping me for some reason.

Yesterday, longtime reader LauraW (Internet names are so weird) thanked me for blogging during this insanity. That was nice. I didn’t think I was helping anyone. Hope I am.

Tomorrow’s figure is 1,007,033, as reported here yesterday. No one can say I predict retroactively.

With that behind me, it’s time for a testimony.

God keeps providing for me during this time of hysteria, authoritarian virtue-signaling, and selfishness. I had a lot of toilet paper before the fuss started. I got what may well have been the last package of paper towels in Ocala. I’m retired, so I won’t lose a job. I got a great deal on a bulk .22 LR buy right before the ammo panic hit, and I got good deals on other things even after it was underway.

I found two canisters of disinfecting wipes I didn’t know I had. I keep rubbing alcohol in the house in big quantities all the time, so I had plenty when things went nuts, and I found a gallon of denatured alcohol at Lowe’s yesterday, in a store with no wipes and no hand sanitizer. I need it for my workshop, but it can also be used for disinfecting if the hoard horde keeps emptying store shelves.

I’ve been using spray bottles of alcohol in my house for years. It’s not new. I cared for my dad when he had dementia, and I have two parrots with dirty feet.

Life here is better than it was a month ago. Stress is down. I keep feeling the sensation of God’s benevolence. It hits me every time I see something he has provided for me.

Yesterday, after visiting Lowe’s, I went to my metal supplier to get steel for a target stand. I always wipe rust off my hands with a disinfecting wipe when I leave that place. The can I keep in my car has been with me for over a year. I don’t use many wipes. Mainly, they’re for cleaning my hands when I visit the dump.

There were only a few wipes in the can yesterday. During the steel errand, I bought gas at a very low price, and it occurred to me that I could put DNA from the new jug on the wipe I had used to wipe off rust and use it to clean the pump handle at the gas station.

I’m not paranoid, but those things are filthy all the time, and this one could have had flu viruses on it. Or one of the 20 alleged coronavirus victims in my county could have touched it. Might as well use what God gave me. I wiped down the handle, the keypad, and the buttons that select the grade of gas. Why not? I think I’ll keep doing it after the craziness subsides. It’s a good idea.

Last night, I did what I always do. I put detergent and trisodium phosphate in the dishwasher. I keep these products under the sink. I look under the sink every day, because I use the products every day.

Last night, I saw something I had never noticed before: a nearly full can of Lysol disinfectant wipes.

I started laughing out loud. I couldn’t stop. Funniest thing I had seen all day. I knew it was a message.

I have three known containers of these things. For all I know, there are others somewhere. I’ve had them since before my dad died. I probably won’t need new ones for a year.

They don’t do much to kill coronaviruses, but it’s still comforting to have them. They work against diseases which, unlike coronavirus, I might actually be exposed to in the near future.

Here’s something else. My friend Amanda has three sons. They used to visit a lot. I noticed that when they visited, the soft soap in my guest bathroom seemed to disappear. I wash my hands over and over, all day, and it takes me over a month to get to where I need to refill anything. You only need a few drops of soft soap to get the job done, unless you’ve just changed your oil or something. Using a handful of soap is completely unnecessary.

I asked Amanda if she could counsel the boys to go easy on the soap. She said she was going to bring me a new container to refill my dispensers. I said I already had a big jug of soap. I said I didn’t care about the cost of the soap, which was nearly nothing. I was just tired of filling the dispenser, which is a pain.

She brought me a jug of soap anyway. I could not dissuade her.

Then coronavirus arrived, and I had well over a gallon of soap on hand (poor choice of words).

Hand soap will actually kill and wash away this virus, and people have been stripping the shelves for a couple of weeks now.

They’re also hoarding dishwashing liquid. I buy it in large quantities because I use it for pressure washing. No worries there.

In the future, never ask me how coronavirus affected me. You may not like the answer. God has been wonderful to me.

Yesterday, our governor finally gave in to the hysteria and issued a statewide lockdown. Because I have no mayor, I was free until he spoke. I got on the web to see how I would be affected. “Essential businesses” were still open.

Where do I go when there is no epidemic? Grocery stores. Hardware stores. Gas stations. Takeout places. To sum it up, I never go to non-essential businesses. Nothing is going to change for me.

I’m not sure which businesses are considered non-essential. Strip clubs? Florists? There must be some businesses that are off-limits.

I’m reminded of something my grandmother said. She told me that when the Depression hit her area, people’s lifestyles didn’t change noticeably.

I have to hand it to governor DeSantis. He stood up to the authoritarians and neurotics for a good long time, risking his political future. I am impressed. That’s leadership.

I assume my metal dealer has an essential business. I picked up my steel the day the lockdown was announced, however, so it doesn’t matter.

Don’t be angry with me. If I have favor, it’s not coming from me. Get your own. It’s available.

Join me in prayer that the epidemic ends. More importantly, pray that the epidemic of fear and selfishness ends, because unlike the viral epidemic, it’s a big problem. Pray that people get to know God in their homes and get filled with the Holy Spirit.

Hope I can finish my target stand today. The targets are scheduled to arrive tomorrow.