You Know What Mark Twain Said About Statistics

I’ve been using calculus to try and guess how the coronavirus epidemic is going to go. I started out with figures for the total number of cases, taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus/Missile Command simulation site.

You’ll see why I call it that when I show you a screen shot. Does anyone remember Atari? Someone at Johns Hopkins does.

I guess some people will say I’m cold for making jokes during an epidemic, but we joke about the flu all the time, don’t we? Hmm.

While I was working on the math, I expressed disappointment because while I had taken note of infection totals in the past, I had not written down death totals. Death totals should be much more reliable, because a dead person will not be able to stay home and avoid being counted. If you die from coronavirus, someone is going to put your name in a database. Live people are different. They can stay home and avoid being counted, as I would.

Yesterday I found an old death toll figure, so I used it to come up with a new differential equation. It gave me new estimates for the future. Here they are.

March 22: 7,809
March 29: 10,456
April 4: 13,999
March 14 + 30 days: 18,743
March 14 + 60 days: 71,155
March 14 + 90 days: 248,521

My earlier estimate for the last date (mid-June) was about 150,000, so the toll now looks worse.

I will repeat the question I ask over and over. Does this mean I was wrong to say coronavirus wasn’t a big deal? NO. At least not yet.

This epidemic is not going to run all year, unless it’s very different from the other SARS we already know about. It’s going to peak and fall off. My equation doesn’t take that into consideration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a death toll of 250,000 by June 15, but I don’t think we’re going to see a million later in the year. Look what happened in China. They had a whole bunch of cases, and then the rate of new infections dropped to the point where in intelligent person would say the Chinese epidemic is just about over. If this happened in China, where people have really dirty habits, I assume it will happen in other places.

In any case, 250,000 global deaths over 7 months do not constitute a plague. It’s bad, but it’s not THAT bad. Don’t forget: the common cold kills 5,000 people every year in the US, and we’re looking at a figure that might be twice that high. It’s very sad that these people die, but we don’t put on rubber suits because of it.

It would be nice to have better figures. The Chinese threw everything off. I’m thinking I’ll start over in a week, on the assumption that the available data will be better.

Here I am, talking like my uninformed amateur equation is reliable. I don’t know if it is or not. I am a layman. But I do know that a person who knows very little about math can look at the totals and tell this doesn’t look like the Spanish flu. That’s what I really rely on. The equation is just an interesting exercise.

The variation in death rates is very confusing. The Italians got hit hard, but the French are doing much better. Why? Are the statistics messed up because of bad testing regimes, or are Italians simply weaker?

In the US, the death rate based on the available facts is 2%, but at the same time, we know we’re not testing many people. The death rate is a quotient. The numerator is the number of people who have died, and the denominator is the number of people who have been infected. The denominator is probably a lot bigger than we realize. As testing becomes more widespread, the death rate should drop a lot, even though the death toll will not.

Maybe the Italians aren’t doing well at testing. That seems to be the only reasonable explanation for their death rate.

It just occurred to me that people will probably flip out even more when testing really gets going. They’ll find out the infection rate is higher than they thought, and they won’t consider the fact that the death rate hasn’t changed. People who think buying toilet paper will protect them are not going to get drawn into mathematical subtleties.

The death rate and toll are all that matters. No one cares about a cough and a mild fever. Obsessing on the number of infections is pointless. As long as the death toll stays low, it won’t matter if half of the world gets infected.

Look at it this way. Gonorrhea is a pandemic, right now. So is HPV, the genital wart disease, which supposedly infects something like 20% of Americans. The common cold is always a pandemic. No one cares. Until people start dying in very large numbers (percentage, not just absolute), a pandemic is not a plague. A high death toll is an essential requirement for a plague.

I’ve been assuming the coronavirus test has a low false-positive rate. I wonder if that’s true. If not, we may be piling flu casualties in the coronavirus bin.

Oh, man. I decided to check. This is unbelievable. According to the Chinese, over HALF of asymptomatic people who test positive may not have COVID-19. And they’ve been testing during flu season! That means they have tons of potential false-positives coming at them!

Now I don’t know what to think. If doctors all over the world are telling enough cold and flu patients they have coronavirus, the pandemic may turn out to be a joke.

At times like these, I’m really glad I rubbed my entire 700-pound stash of toilet paper with a lucky rabbit’s foot.

If there are a lot of false positives for living people, what about the dead? Maybe those figures are also inflated.

From the spiritual standpoint, I see some things about coronavirus that truly are scary.

People think the Beast is just one person, but that isn’t true. There will be a figurehead, but the body of the Beast will be billions of unsaved people, acting in concert, guided by demons and fallen angels. As I have often said, everyone is spirit-led; it’s not just Christians who have been baptized properly with the Holy Spirit. If you’re not led by the Holy Spirit, you’re led by spirits that work for Satan. You may not be completely controlled by them, but they have a big influence on you.

Before the Antichrist can do his thing, he will have to have a body prepared. I think that’s what’s happening now. Satan is using training exercises to get people used to obeying him. He’s getting them used to believing crazy things and behaving irrationally.

Look at the toilet paper shortage, which is absolutely real. No one with a grain of common sense would ordinarily hoard toilet paper, yet millions upon millions of people are doing it. Satan is conditioning them to obey him as a unit.

He’s also conditioning them to give control to the state. Satan is a statist. He loves government, because he is weak and can’t be everywhere at once. God can lead an infinite number of people with no earthly infrastructure, but Satan needs our help. He needs telephones, televisions, and the Internet. He needs the government.

People are now much more open to government power grabs. Coronavirus did that.

There is a wacky mayor in Illinois who just gave herself the power to stop the sale of guns, ammunition, and alcohol. She also gave herself the power to confiscate and use private property as she sees fit. And no one has stopped her! I’m sure what she’s doing is unconstitutional. Why aren’t people up in arms? We’re supposed to be connected with God, and we’re supposed to have his protection, but we’re not, so we run into the arms of Karl Marx and his father, Satan.

When I voted in mayoral elections in the Miami area, I didn’t think much about what the mayors could do to me. I just tried to pick the least-obviously-corrupt Cuban and left it at that. It never occurred to me that one of them might go nuts and try to break down my door and take my guns. Now I see that such things can happen in America, because of a manufactured panic. If you live in a place like Chicago or St. Louis, how do you know the Gestapo won’t barge into your house, just like they did in Germany and Austria? It used to seem impossible. Is it?

I’m not going to get coronavirus, but oppression is a certainty. It will take longer to get to some areas, but it will come. The only question is whether God will move me to a place where freedom will last as long as possible.

I can see why I keep feeling he wants me to move to Tennessee.

Here is how the world works: it’s like The Matrix. Remember how that worked? The rebels who went into the matrix were surrounded by ordinary people who didn’t know what was going on. They were generally harmless, but at a moment’s notice, agents could enter them and transform them into vicious enemies. That’s how the Beast will function. People around you will be transformed by demons, and they will do terrible things to you, claiming it’s their civic duty. This is what happened in Germany, Austria, Cambodia, Cuba, and so on. It can happen here, too.

Ordinary people who are generally nice can do astounding things. It has happened throughout history. Chinese crowds were known for cutting large pieces out of people, keeping them alive as long as possible. A crowd of religious Jews ridiculed Jesus while he was hanging from nails. Nice Germans bought the property of Jews at absurdly low prices and kept it. Consider lynchings. They weren’t performed by escaped convicts. They were performed by people who attended church and made their kids say their prayers before going to bed.

Christians won’t just be abused by people who are obviously evil. It will be ordinary individuals, just like the nice Dutch citizens who sold Jews to the Nazis during the occupation. It will be teachers, Walmart greeters, doctors, preachers, and so on. And many of them will do it in the name of Jesus.

The country looks better and better. I’m already in the country, but apparently not deep enough.

I plan to keep updating my equation, but I’m not buying a rubber suit. This thing will blow over.