Latest Forecast not Comforting to Pessimists

Because it’s raining and I am stalling, and because it’s hard to stop looking at hurricane updates, I am here to report on the latest projection.

They are moving the projected track of Hurricane Dorian to the east. Is this a good thing? Yes. If you’re me. If you’re not me, then no, it’s not good at all.

The new projected track takes Dorian straight up the coast. People in Florida like to be near the water, so a big long scrape up the coast will cause problems for lots of Floridians.

It could be worse. Once you get north of Palm Beach, the population thins out, which is a remarkable thing, really. Why are so many people cramming into the Miami-Palm Beach corridor when they could be living in nice places like Sebastian?

People love cities. It’s like loving dysentery, but there you go.

If the eye of the storm is close to the coast, it will be at least 50 miles from me, meaning nearly nothing will happen here.

Here’s a funny thing about storm tracks. Not only is there a trend in the expected locations the storm will occupy; there is a trend in the shape of the projected track. The track is curling up like a finger over time, as if beckoning toward the Atlantic. I wonder if that means anything. I don’t mean supernaturally. If a track tends toward a certain shape, does that mean it’s likely to keep transforming into that shape? Will it have a sort of momentum that keeps pushing it to assume that form? I guess so.

Dorian’s cone of death used to be sort of a wind sock, without much of a bend in it. Now it has a pretty good bend in it. If it keeps bending, it will miss the coast. The ECMWF model now shows Dorian missing the coast. The GFS model shows it staying close to the water.

What if it misses the United States entirely? There’s a good chance it will. That would be really funny. I get tired of the Chicken Littles who revel in despair and worry. They nibble at me like ducks every time a hurricane appears. Some get irritated when I dismiss their dire prophesies. It’s pretty clear they actually get angry when disasters fail to materialize. Like Jonah, when Nineveh was spared. They definitely get mad when you refuse to join the anxiety fest. It would do them good to see their hopes for Dorian dashed.

It would do everyone in Florida a lot of good!

I’ve made some people extremely angry by criticizing hurricane hysteria. I actually quit an online forum because of it. Many people are legitimately in love with pessimism. That’s not an exaggeration. They hold it close and cuddle it, and they lash out at anyone who doesn’t want to pet it. All I can say is this: that’s not a baby you’re holding; it’s a stinking ball of pus, and I’m not getting any on me.

God tells us not to worry. That’s actually a commandment. It may well be my favorite, although I should really prefer the first commandment.

More news as it fails to develop.