“Recovery” Means “Meltdown”

February 25th, 2009

Nuance in Action

It’s another Obama rally on Wall Street! Of course, in Obamese, “rally” is the word we use when we want to say “freefall.” Right now we’re down 150 points, and there is little HOPE that the trend will CHANGE.

Thank God, the left has rewritten the rules of logic. That will save us; when you’re a socialist, wishing will make it so.

These days, a person who borrows money he can’t repay is “a victim.” A person who is ejected from a home he can’t pay for and ends up renting again is “homeless.” Failure is something you reward. Success is something you punish. And amazingly, when you punish success and reward failure, people get more and more productive, and life just improves without measure! After that, we all grow wings and sell our cars because we can fly everywhere we want to go. Be careful up there! Don’t collide with a pig!

Back in the old days, before logic was repealed, overhauled, and replaced, a company that was mismanaged would go out of business, smarter people would buy the assets and hire the employees, and the new company would do better than the old one. A person who got a house loan he could not afford would sell at a loss and go bankrupt and start over, or the bank would foreclose, and a solvent person would buy the house. Then the buyer who lost the house would rent an apartment. We called this “capitalism,” and it led to the greatest combination of stability and wealth any nation has ever known.

These days, when you accept a bad loan with everything disclosed in advance and your eyes wide open, the government takes money away from your responsible neighbor and gives it to you so you can keep your home. Then the government has the gall to tell your neighbor this was done to help HIM.

Your neighbor has less money to take care of himself and his family. He has less incentive to work and save and invest and help create jobs, because the Mommy Dearest State will let him blow his money on beer and lotto tickets and then catch him when he falls. He will adjust his behavior accordingly, unless the Messiah restructures human nature. Of course, that’s the socialist’s worst fantasy. The one that makes their system so pathetic.

The lenders that gave these loans need to go out of business. They knew exactly what was going on, unless they were on psychedelic drugs. I knew what was going on, and I’m just a lawyer.

Earlier in the decade, I represented a couple of car salesmen. They had worked at a number of dealerships in the Miami area. Guess what they told me? They told me how car loans work. Let’s say you’re a crackhead, but you want an Escalade. You go to a car dealer, and you point at the car you want, and they give you a loan form. And you say, “but I am a crackhead and I have no income.” They say, “We did not ask you to declare your income. Just sign the form.” And you sign it, and they fill it out, and if needed, they dig up a forged 1040 and attach it. This is literally true. Then they send it to GMAC or whoever the lender is, and the loan gets approved. This happens every day, all over this city. Well, it DID. Back when people were able to sell cars.

Maybe “crackhead” is an exaggeration, but the rest of it is absolutely true. Car dealers routinely forge documents in order to get lenders to cough up. Surely the lenders know it; how could they not? And if car dealers do it, surely the same thing happens in the housing industry. Get a lender to pay, take your piece of the action, and move on. Then the lender sells the loan and moves on. Somewhere down the line, someone in China eats it, but you got your little piece of cheese, so it’s okay. I can’t believe the lenders don’t know what’s happening. They would have to live in lead-lined booths. Surely they must be making these bad loans with the intention of passing them on before they tank.

You have to wonder how this affects lending standards. If the qualifications of buyers are exaggerated on a broad scale–and they are–you have to wonder how much inflation is built into the standards.

I’ll explain. Imagine the lenders think the average home buyer has a $60,000 income and $5000 in debt. But because the people who put mortgage applications together have lied so much, the true figures are more like $40,000 and $10,000. And the average buyer makes his payments. What happens? The lender ends up with unrealistically high standards. The lender thinks you need $60,000 and $5000 to be a good risk, but the reality is, people with the other figures are pretty safe. Wouldn’t that make it harder for honest applicants to get credit?

I also wonder what the Chinese think, when they see the documents. They must go, “Wow! Americans are even richer than we think! This guy’s application says ‘crackhead,’ and his address is ‘dumpster,’ but he earns more yuan in a day than I make in a month!”

I don’t actually know if the Chinese see the original documents when they buy American mortgages. I have no idea how that works. But they do buy our mortgages. Your stuff is Chinese. Your house is Chinese. You might as well go ahead and buy a wok. Which will probably be made in Mexico.

The free market and logic are like gravity. Eventually they are going to win, because they never take a break. They never stop. Redistribution of wealth only works when the free market redistributes it from unproductive people to productive people. Obama is building a house of cards, and we’re in a windstorm. I still can’t believe Bush helped him do this. Remind me again why people thought Bush was conservative.

A rising tide lifts all boats. In the past, anyone could do well, because America was prosperous. It was easy to succeed. That probably won’t be true from now on. My answer is to get my house in order, change my behavior, and try to find my way into God’s good graces.

Oh, boy. Down 180. Think of all the people out there who saved all their lives and just lost their retirement money. This is absolutely terrible.

7 Responses to ““Recovery” Means “Meltdown””

  1. davis,br Says:

    “The lender thinks you need $60,000 and $5000 to be a good risk, but the reality is, people with the other figures are pretty safe. Wouldn’t that make it harder for honest applicants to get credit?”
    .
    Exactly. This has been my problem. That, and having eyes wide open.
    .
    My wife and I would love to buy a certain house …we haven’t, because the house(s) we’ve liked are overpriced. And though we’ve no debt (none!), and have always paid cash, and not gone into debt, and have saved, and have good jobs (for many years) we’re rejected as *credit risks*.
    .
    AND the house(s) we might like are still way over-priced. And, from the sound of things, may remain so for some time yet. As a result of the silly acceptance of Obamanomics.
    .
    Seriously.
    .
    …while those who’ve have made financially fictitious and disastrous and absurd economic choices …are being rewarded.
    .
    …with MY money. My tax money. You probably wouldn’t believe the amount of taxes that a [lower middle] middle class income without a mortgage write-off has to pay. (It’s a few hundred dollars a month: and yes, I’ve done the math. And noted some years where we could’ve paid cash for a new modest car with what instead we paid in taxes.)
    .
    I hate those idiots in Washington. They are irresponsible thieves and bandits, and I no longer think they should ALL simply be fired.
    .
    No. I think we should descend upon Washington with bags of feathers, and barrels of tar.
    .

  2. km Says:

    If the One keeps popping up with “new” ideas that provide an immediate tanking of the markets, his ability to blame it all on Bush (even with the fawning coconspirator media) will soon be undercut and it will become the Obama Depression (and a one term presidency).

  3. ErikZ Says:

    The thing that bothers me the most is the idea that you must have a down payment or you’re just not dependable.

    So if you want a 100k house, you need to put down 20k.

    It’s supposed to be, you put in 25% of your income to your home. Well, if you’re saving up for a down payment, you’ll be putting aside 50% of your income for *years*.

    I managed to get a 0 down loan for a place that was close to half of what the bank was willing to loan me. I now own a little condo that very affordable.

    If I were to try to buy this place today, I wouldn’t qualify.

  4. Cindy M Says:

    The day after I bought my sports trac I got a frantic call from the dealership. Seems they had me sign all the paperwork EXCEPT the loan papers.

  5. Chris Says:

    Erik, I think 20% used to be pretty reasonable before inflation really started kicking in during the early 1970s (thanks, Nixon!).

    In 1965, the average cost of a new house was $13,600, and the average income was $6,450, or 47% of the cost of a house. Now, the average new home costs $134,150, and the average income is $40,343, or 30% of the cost of a house (this was in 2000, before the bubble really expanded, so the numbers could be even worse now. Incidentally, the cost of a new car in 1965 was appx 40% of an average person’s annual income, now it is appx 60%). The biggest flaw in Obama’s plan is that he is trying to reinflate the housing bubble, rather than letting things be and providing those of us who have rented all these years with a real chance of being able to afford a home.

  6. Steve H. Says:

    Reinflating the housing bubble. That’s a great point. People are moaning about losing equity and so on, but the truth is, their equity is a mirage, and the rest of us should not be coerced into chasing it. When crappy little houses on quarter-acre lots sell for $750,000, it’s not normal, and it’s not okay, and it’s not good for the economy. Housing prices are still insane, and they need to come down a long way. If your tract house that was worth $100,000 in 2000 is now worth $400,000, you need to get real and accept the fact that $250,000 of that is pure BS, and you need to let it go.
    .
    Credit is like insurance. It makes everything more expensive.

  7. Vlad Says:

    I see what you are saying about the bubble. I would watch those Flip Your House shows and be astounded at the prices. Thank God the housing prices here are fairly normal.

    Back in 2002, we applied for a home loan without a particular house in mind just to see what our budget would be. My Wife and I had been renting for 8 years and thought we would never be able to buy a home. Just wanted to test the waters and see what we would need for a downpayment, etc. Shockingly, we were approved for 315,000 on an ARM! 100 grand on a fixed rate. Mind you our credit was terrible at this time. I honestly didn’t think we would even get approved at all.

    A realtor we were looking at houses with was pushing HARD to get us in a McMansion but we did the right thing and bought a home for 72,000. (Our rate was 11% and we refinanced it to 8% 3 years later) We had a choice between the red pill or the blue. If we would have bought a house for 300 grand that we couldn’t possibly refinance or even pay the taxes on we would have been kicked to the curb a couple years ago.

    The lending situation worked out well for us because we were responsible. However, I wonder what percentage of people took the red pill and went right to Livin Large Yo?